Tuesday, 24 November 2009
Not much to talk about regarding poker to be honest. Just the daily grind going ok, with nothing special to speak of. So i thought i'd blog a bit about that other passion of mine, sports betting.
As with anything i guess, my bets on sports seem to lose when the farm is on and unleash hell on the bookies when the pennies are plunged. The latter is how it's been going lately. Everything i back, tip, even smell a punt on-wins. Of crse if i started putting some serious dough on im sure variance wld kick in, stupid really as this is surely irrational thinking. Anyway i had a thought about all this. To help myself keep track im going to start putting up some tips on here for a little bit.
Obviously they all come with a serious health/wealth warning and should just be observed for now. It's just i actually think with a proper staking plan i could actually start coining it in a little bit, but that requires discipline of course, something somewhat a little lacking in my locker.
Recently the bet that's been doing very nicely for me is the draw no bet selection. It helps the wuss in me back teams like sunderland at home to arsenal,when before i'd worry about the draw, which of crse wld be okay if i just layed arsenal on betfair, but after comish and stuff i often found value lost on the exchange, as lots of my fancies are arbs. Draw no bets often offer more value imo and are a lovely addition to the weekend acca.
So what i'm going to do for a month or so, and for a bit of a laugh, is start a punting bank with 100 points, and i'll back my tips in reality from this 'fund' as well as putting them up on here. I won't however mention how much the bank is, as that would be too personal-i'll just leave it up to the imagination.
Ok so lets get cracking.
This morning after a long night's online poker sesh i've been unable to sleep. Therefore i have been ploughing through tuesday's champions league games looking for an edge, and a few funky bets to place. Most of the games look tight encounters and i decided to look for a different angle, bar exclusively betting on the match odds.
Often i find in european matches the bookmakers wont do huge research into the more unknown team's players, and how often certain players will score frequently for their team, yet be massively overpriced. Many times you can find the odd gem lurking at a lovely juicy price with one or two bookmakers.
Unfortunately i didn't find a player at 50-1 who should have been 20s or less, as i have on numerous occassions before. But i did find a couple of decent enough 'value' bets. Which is all we are really looking for, if we continue to get value, as in poker, we will eventually be winners in the game. But mainly this is meant to be a bit of fun for me, and something to test the waters in terms of my punting discipline.
Most tipsters stick to 1-3 points in their bet sizes. I don't, my bets will vary up to a maximum of 10 points per bet. The reason is, i do a great deal of bets on occasion and some will be merely speculative, while some should win easily- but all will be value.
Tonight i'm laying out 10.5 points worth of bets.
So here are my bets: (100 starting bank)
(1)- Debrechen Draw No bet- 1.25 points win@8-1.
In my opinion liverpool cannot be trusted with counterfit right now. Defensively they look all over the place-i cannot see a clean sheet tonight. The hungarians are no world beaters and will themselves concede, i actually thought of backing the overs here, but there was not a huge amount of value in the price. And that's the key here, debrechen at 8s with the draw refunding stakes- are a value bet imo.
(2)- Stuggart Draw No bet- 5 pts win@5-6.
I really don't see a losing side to this bet at all. Rangers look terrible everytime i see them, the germans will be efficent and could very well be clinical enough to give the blues a real thrashing. Walter smith's boys have lost both previous home ties 4-1 and i can forsee a similar type of scoreline tonight. Thus i've also had some small correct score punts at party prices.
(3)- Stuggart to win 4-1- 0.5 pt@80-1,5-0- 0.25 pt@325-1, 5-1 0.25 pt@250-1.
(4)-Barcelona to win 3-1- 0.5 pt@14-1.
I think this will develop into an open game with barca needing a result. This is the sort of scoreline i envisage, and i'd be more inclined to make it 12-1, thus it's value.
(5)- Karadeniz fgs for Rubin Kazan v Dynamo Kiev- 0.625pt ew@10-1.
This guy has got quite a few goals for the russians so far and looks a value price here, most firms were single figs bar 1 here, who look to have underestimated the turkish player.
(6)-Josef varga fgs for debrechen v liverpool- 0.5pt ew@50-1.
The stats show this midfeilder is slightly overpriced here and with the generous place terms, an anytime goal will still provide a nice profit.
(7)- M Jovanovic fgs for standard leige v arsenal- 0.5pt @14s.
The serb scores hatfuls for them and takes the penalties to boot. Arsenal might start slowly here after the weekend.
Ok that's it.