Thursday, 26 November 2009

Last night's bets...

Ok so another score draw more or less, hull won and milan failed to flatten the french.
Takes the balance back to it's starting point of 100 points, so not exactly that exciting a start, but at least i'm not losing.

Been playing a few small stake mtt's this week, just cannot stop donking off big stack's when i get them, it's getting annoying and needing to be rectified. I'm even running badly in the stt's but meh that's just variance.

Looking 4ward to the weekend, going to be a good one i hope. I'll be studying numerous sports bets over the next 24 hours to see if I can find a nice saturday punt.

Finally well done to my frind marc c who took down the gukpt qualifier online last night, well done mate! Hopefully he'll take the grand final down, 100k+ ftw, lovely!

Laters peeps,

Donk dom.

Wednesday, 25 November 2009

Tips...

Firstly better admit to having messed up a bit with my staking sizes as a few smart ass 'mates' of mine have pointed out. Gone is the 0.25 and 0.625 amounts, they just look ugly. From now on to appease the masses they will stay in 0.5 increments. :)

Ill also round down or up my loss/win to the nearest half point for clarity.

Tonight i haven't done any research into obscure fgs selections so will just have a cple of dull match bets.

(Balance 98.5 points)

(1)Hull draw no bet, 2.5 pts@6-4.

- I like hull dnb at home tonight at 6-4. They are improving, have competition up front and should be a difficult prospect for an everton side with injuries and a rather eratic nature. Hull are very much a confidence side, and right now goals mean confidence and they will go into this match with some hope after the west ham peformance, rather than everton 's usual spanking from united.

(2) Milan to win, 2.5 pts@1.98.

- Milan at near evens tonight are just too good a price to ignore. They play a marseille side tonight who i believe are underpriced due to thrashing a poor zurich side 6-1 last time out, milan are no swiss cheese. I make milan's price nearer 4-5 here and have been relatively impressed when watching them recently, and thus they are value here.

Laters peeps,

Dom.

More Sports...

No piccy today im afraid-not for short posts anyway.

Last night's results were more or less a wash, well i lost but not much.

Liverpool managed to win 1-0, so no shame in losing an 8-1 shot by a mere goal, the fgs bets all misfired, but i was happy with the value i recived on their prices, so no matter. Stuggart tanked rangers, but unfortunately not by enough to really crush on the night.

So first night's total is -1.33 points. (Balance 98.67)

Going to post a cple of punts later this afternoon, prob only a cple tonight.

Laters peeps,

Dom.

Tuesday, 24 November 2009

Sports betting....




Not much to talk about regarding poker to be honest. Just the daily grind going ok, with nothing special to speak of. So i thought i'd blog a bit about that other passion of mine, sports betting.

As with anything i guess, my bets on sports seem to lose when the farm is on and unleash hell on the bookies when the pennies are plunged. The latter is how it's been going lately. Everything i back, tip, even smell a punt on-wins. Of crse if i started putting some serious dough on im sure variance wld kick in, stupid really as this is surely irrational thinking. Anyway i had a thought about all this. To help myself keep track im going to start putting up some tips on here for a little bit.

Obviously they all come with a serious health/wealth warning and should just be observed for now. It's just i actually think with a proper staking plan i could actually start coining it in a little bit, but that requires discipline of course, something somewhat a little lacking in my locker.

Recently the bet that's been doing very nicely for me is the draw no bet selection. It helps the wuss in me back teams like sunderland at home to arsenal,when before i'd worry about the draw, which of crse wld be okay if i just layed arsenal on betfair, but after comish and stuff i often found value lost on the exchange, as lots of my fancies are arbs. Draw no bets often offer more value imo and are a lovely addition to the weekend acca.

So what i'm going to do for a month or so, and for a bit of a laugh, is start a punting bank with 100 points, and i'll back my tips in reality from this 'fund' as well as putting them up on here. I won't however mention how much the bank is, as that would be too personal-i'll just leave it up to the imagination.

Ok so lets get cracking.

This morning after a long night's online poker sesh i've been unable to sleep. Therefore i have been ploughing through tuesday's champions league games looking for an edge, and a few funky bets to place. Most of the games look tight encounters and i decided to look for a different angle, bar exclusively betting on the match odds.

Often i find in european matches the bookmakers wont do huge research into the more unknown team's players, and how often certain players will score frequently for their team, yet be massively overpriced. Many times you can find the odd gem lurking at a lovely juicy price with one or two bookmakers.

Unfortunately i didn't find a player at 50-1 who should have been 20s or less, as i have on numerous occassions before. But i did find a couple of decent enough 'value' bets. Which is all we are really looking for, if we continue to get value, as in poker, we will eventually be winners in the game. But mainly this is meant to be a bit of fun for me, and something to test the waters in terms of my punting discipline.


Most tipsters stick to 1-3 points in their bet sizes. I don't, my bets will vary up to a maximum of 10 points per bet. The reason is, i do a great deal of bets on occasion and some will be merely speculative, while some should win easily- but all will be value.

Tonight i'm laying out 10.5 points worth of bets.

So here are my bets: (100 starting bank)

(1)- Debrechen Draw No bet- 1.25 points win@8-1.

In my opinion liverpool cannot be trusted with counterfit right now. Defensively they look all over the place-i cannot see a clean sheet tonight. The hungarians are no world beaters and will themselves concede, i actually thought of backing the overs here, but there was not a huge amount of value in the price. And that's the key here, debrechen at 8s with the draw refunding stakes- are a value bet imo.

(2)- Stuggart Draw No bet- 5 pts win@5-6.

I really don't see a losing side to this bet at all. Rangers look terrible everytime i see them, the germans will be efficent and could very well be clinical enough to give the blues a real thrashing. Walter smith's boys have lost both previous home ties 4-1 and i can forsee a similar type of scoreline tonight. Thus i've also had some small correct score punts at party prices.

(3)- Stuggart to win 4-1- 0.5 pt@80-1,5-0- 0.25 pt@325-1, 5-1 0.25 pt@250-1.

(4)-Barcelona to win 3-1- 0.5 pt@14-1.

I think this will develop into an open game with barca needing a result. This is the sort of scoreline i envisage, and i'd be more inclined to make it 12-1, thus it's value.

(5)- Karadeniz fgs for Rubin Kazan v Dynamo Kiev- 0.625pt ew@10-1.

This guy has got quite a few goals for the russians so far and looks a value price here, most firms were single figs bar 1 here, who look to have underestimated the turkish player.

(6)-Josef varga fgs for debrechen v liverpool- 0.5pt ew@50-1.

The stats show this midfeilder is slightly overpriced here and with the generous place terms, an anytime goal will still provide a nice profit.

(7)- M Jovanovic fgs for standard leige v arsenal- 0.5pt @14s.

The serb scores hatfuls for them and takes the penalties to boot. Arsenal might start slowly here after the weekend.

Ok that's it.

Laters peeps,

Dom.

Tuesday, 17 November 2009

Sunday million and....




So close to a big score, but alas it wasn't to be.

As i fired up my computer early on sunday evening i entered the warm up, with itself a near million prize pool. Several hours later i cashed for a bowl after beating 4000+ competitors, yet found the last 500 or so just a little too cardracky.

The million gave me a huge stack early on and inspired confidence in that win i knew i was due. Despite outlasting 17,500 fellow players, again the last 380 feisty fish found their cards bootiful, while i found rags aplenty-one day it will happen.

Been a quiet week really, grinding away while suffering from severe toothace, appointment later today to remove offending wisdom tooth.

Ill blog later,

Laters peeps,

Dom

Thursday, 12 November 2009

Weekly Update



Spent the weekend partaking in all sorts of revelries in nottingham...ok i just played some poker with a sherbert or 3, but it was fun.

Last week was spent grinding the small mtts online, with the odd stt sesh thrown in. I managed to sat into the dtd 300 in a 10 euro rebuy and took down a couple of mini rebuys on ipoker for a bowl or two. Thursday night saw me drink far too much than is advisable after a meeting about poker turned into a beer festival. Thus the friday journey up to nottingham was spent feeling and looking green, also managed to lose my prescription shades on the way up for about the zillionth time this year. Moto service stations certainly don't destroy the opposition in terms of customer service, but lets get onto the poker.

Friday 6th November

Checked into hotel and decided the £40 quid rebuy would be best left alone, a mate from the international chopped it up for a couple of bags while i watched a john candy film.

Saturday 7th November

The holiday inn's breakfast, in particular the sausages were atrocious, i still have a stomach ache which i blame on these. Probably shouldn't have eaten them every day then, but an incorparated full english has to be taken advantage of right? Anyway i rushed over to the dtd club and saw the place infested with sharks as well as the uusal cods.

My opening table was pretty weak, but i didn't exactly take advantage, instead taking strong yet weak lines (if thats possible) against the young scandi threatning to run over the table. Deciding i wanted the captains hat i took him on in numerous pots with position, came out even or so in pots won between us, yet massively down in chips attained in these skirmishes.

A few hands i murdered, yet if im honest my only premium hand all day was ak once and precisely no pocket pairs bar the odd ducks or threes. I know a bad workman blames his tools, but surely he has to actually have some damn tools available. After witnessing numerous nit rolls where ppl destroyed poker hands with aplomb i departed after shipping my bowl in with j9std and running into aj, suck out 1 time was not to happen on this occasion.

Played the evening shootfest which carried a juicy 2.5k first prize, but failed to hit many flops, in the process massacring pocket queens against a female rock's turned set. At leats i busted in time for the haye fight and a comedy live score stt.

Sunday 8th November.

Woke up with a slight headache and decided to stay another night. The 150 fo today looked juicy and i managed to sell some of my action. That tournie went quite badly, i just could not get started, finally squeezing pocket ducks into the bullets, a bad move as the guy had never flatted a raise all day, guy wasn't exactly phil ivey neither, but might as well have been with me not even looking at the bloke. Shipping 13bbs in this spot dsnt sound horrible, fact that the aces guy had 11bb total does.

Decided the 40+40 evening shoot would end everything suitably, finishing third got me out of it for the weekend, but certainly not by much. Still was nice for the old confidence, even rejected a deal three handed, and glad i did despite the result. Finally thinking longterm for once.

Heard the twins were in the btm two on the xfactor-did my plums on this. Could not, would not understand that, and may attempt a similar bet this wknd, luckily a very small bet on lucie to go at 16s helped ease the pain a little.

Monday 9th November -Weds 11th nov.

Cheers to mark for the lift home, as also the lift up-poor guy should get a medal having to share a car with yours truely moaning about beats etc. Got back in time to grind a bit online. Thats what ive been mostly doing since i got bk, though i still feel rough from those breakfasts. Was glad to see that although james aikenhead hadn't won the wsop, cada had. Backed them both and also think the young american will be better for poker than a darvin moon win would have been, although i think mr moon surprised a few with his second place finish, certainly not the uber fish he made out.

Going to grind so much online next few weeks and try not to allow myself to get too down about having to miss blackpool gukpt and a stag do this weekend because of money issues, time to get that roll decent, then i'll party once more.

Laters peeps,

Dom.

Sunday, 1 November 2009

Well....




*EDIT* Monday 2nd November- Just won my seat to the dtd live 80k monthly grntd via a 10 euro rebuy-sweet :)
Will probably sell some action but if so will post nearer saturday, can't wait as it's been ages since i've been dtd.

The last week has seen me miss out on big cashes more times than a wannabe wag in stringfellos-not sure if that line works but hey who cares! Keep hitting the bar with small mtt cashes, and then hitting the bar for beer to drown my sorrows. I've literally made about 7 final tables on ipoker in the last week, yet my biggest cash has been for like 300 bucks, figure how that is possible. I guess the buyins varying from $7 to $50 doesn't help, but it keeps the variance down. And the top 3 places normally pay well for a few k. My problem has been i keep losing crucial races and getting sucked out on in crucial pots. Oh well rant over, here's how my weeks's gone.

Monday 26th october.

Got up late but still managed to make it to brighton with family for someone's birthday. Said person had a good time which was all that mattered really, but luckily so did i as i breathed in the sea air. Was nice to have a day off gambling and just chill, although on the journey home i mused over backing leicster on the draw no bet market against the 'toothless at home' reading. Left the punt alone and of course it sailed home.

Tuesday 27th october.

Was back to the grind of a sort. If you call the occasional stt and sports bet a grind. The night shift on the mtt trail was the real work done really, hit the post a few too many times but ended up a little on the day which was a refreshing change.

Wednesday 28th october.

Had a few footy bets on this day. They alll won which nearly caused me to faint, my slightly negative attitude of late expected to lose, probbaly something i need to change in all aspects of life. Again hit the late night mtt trail and nearly smashed up my computer due to a beat or twelve.

Thursday 29th october.

Today i decided id really hit those stts,id multi table and show em how it was done, did I do the volume??...did i f@*!
Enjoyed some sports bets a little too much, putting on one or two too many 'dirty' bets saw a long term account closed, something that caused me much fury. No matter though, least they can't get no tilt footy bets off me. Mtts again saw deep runs without much wonga recieved, as i sank into bed around 7am i wondered where it had all gone wrong.

Friday 30th october.

Agree to meet some mates up town for a 50 quid rebuy+add on trne at the sportsman. The standard had to be seen to be believed. Unfortunately i didn't pick up not one premium hand all night. Left me needing to squeeze open donk limpers, probably a bad idea when one of them is tilting and your 86std runs up against the snowmen. Left to go home after a guinness or 3.

Saturday 31st october.

Got all my xfactor bets ready and waited for the evening's show. Felt this was the week rachel's luck would run out and also punted lucie at party prices. Did my usual lay of the twins for the bottom 2, kinda hard for them to be in that position when they are clearly one of the most voted acts. Yet ppl never learn and one bookie even offered generous odds on the event not happening too.

Football bets were a mixed bag, fulham copping a sweet draw no bet punt, southampton, stoke and sunderland all drawing and ruining an accumlualtor, 3 teams starting with s in an acca are clearly jinxed. Played a very small amount of poker but otherwise spent the day with my lovely gf. Also found out mr keys had won 48k or so in estonia-MBN! Wd though mate.

Sunday 1st november.

Spent most of the day chilling and went into greenwich for a walk and food with gf, was a nice break from gambling. Coffee by the river is starting to become a habit, i think im getting old as i actually am starting to enjoy it.

Enjoyed seeing my rachel bet cop and the twins wager absolutely sail sthrough. Unfortunately the multitude of direct debits due out soon will swallow up those wins, but hey it was a nice result. Couple of nfl bets were a wash, and i played a couple of the stars majors. In the warm up i went up and down like a yoyo, but ran like a dog and soon departed.

The million went a little better if also reliant on the yoyo style, before i made a somewhat laggy 3bet ship allin for 20 big blinds to a hj open, my aj no match for his aq, but im sure its the correct move. Currently playing a 10 dollar rebuy in which ive gone from chip daddy to chip junior, but there's still hope, the pca sat went slightly badly tho, degenerated into a shoot, but 50 dollar ones normally do.

Ok laters peeps,

Dom.